ESL One Fall 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Allianceloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
412 picks · 186 bans
Hoodwink
358 picks · 132 bans
Nyx Assassin
299 picks · 598 bans
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 362 bans
Mars
278 picks · 461 bans
Puck
273 picks · 607 bans
Winter Wyvern
264 picks · 243 bans
Lina
252 picks · 369 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% T1
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:4
T1 52%Alliance 48%
The model gave 52% on T1 — the game was taken by Alliance in 30:21.
Game 2prediction missed21:30
T1 52%Alliance 48%
The model gave 52% on T1 — the game was taken by Alliance in 45:24.
Game 3prediction missed25:28
T1 52%Alliance 48%
The model gave 52% on T1 — the game was taken by Alliance in 47:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 52%
Series resultT1 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3