ESL One Fall 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 15 games
Clockwerk
Sneyking · 14 games
Puckoften banned
Nine · 13 games
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 11 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 11 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 10 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
412 picks · 187 bans
Hoodwink
358 picks · 132 bans
Nyx Assassin
298 picks · 598 bans
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 362 bans
Mars
278 picks · 461 bans
Puck
273 picks · 608 bans
Winter Wyvern
263 picks · 243 bans
Lina
252 picks · 368 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 17%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:10
Tundra Esports 68%beastcoast 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:19.
Game 2prediction correct52:28
Tundra Esports 68%beastcoast 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 68%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2