i-League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Elephantwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Grimstroke
Dy · 26 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 24 games
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 23 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 23 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 22 games
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Ori · 21 game
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 21 game
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
412 picks · 187 bans
Hoodwink
357 picks · 132 bans
Nyx Assassin
296 picks · 597 bans
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 360 bans
Mars
278 picks · 460 bans
Puck
273 picks · 608 bans
Winter Wyvern
263 picks · 243 bans
Lina
252 picks · 365 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 70%
Hero pool strength56% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total54% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:6
Vici Gaming 54%Elephant 46%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 30:39.
Game 2prediction missed23:35
Vici Gaming 54%Elephant 46%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Elephant in 36:56.
Game 3prediction missed16:32
Vici Gaming 54%Elephant 46%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Elephant in 29:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 54%
Series resultElephant 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3