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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Empireloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 31 game
81%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 24 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 20 games
75%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 17 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 17 games
76%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 17 games
76%

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 26 games
65%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 19 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
VANSKOR · 17 games
59%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 13 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 11 games
55%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
80%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 9 games
78%
Mars
Marssignature
Shachlo · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
410 picks · 189 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 133 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
297 picks · 602 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 361 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
277 picks · 465 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
277 picks · 615 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
265 picks · 243 bans
54%
Lina
Lina
255 picks · 361 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total73% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:15
Team Spirit 65%Team Empire 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYatoro
66% · 27 games39% · 32 games
SvenSmiling Knight
Sven
Viper
ViperTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 23 games49% · 52 games
Queen of Painkiyotaka
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsCollapse
57% · 93 games44% · 136 games
Dark Willowsayuw
Dark Willow
Lion
LionMira
51% · 87 games44% · 37 games
Night StalkerShachlo
Night Stalker
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMiposhka
56% · 34 games40% · 7 games
LichVANSKOR
Lich
Game 2prediction correct30:24
Team Spirit 63%Team Empire 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 50:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
49% · 99 games51% · 35 games
SvenSmiling Knight
Sven
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainTORONTOTOKYO
56% · 57 games53% · 204 games
MarsShachlo
Mars
Axe
AxeCollapse
47% · 93 games48% · 88 games
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
48% · 120 games50% · 145 games
Phoenixsayuw
Phoenix
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMiposhka
50% · 117 games44% · 14 games
OmniknightVANSKOR
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 73%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2