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i-League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:1
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 16 games
31%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 14 games
43%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 9 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 9 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 9 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Fantasy · 8 games
13%
Doom
Doomoften banned
生死 · 8 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
phoenix · 8 games
38%

Vici Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 26 games
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 24 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 23 games
48%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 22 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
73%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 21 game
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Ori · 20 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 20 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 192 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
358 picks · 134 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
299 picks · 604 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
282 picks · 626 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 360 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
280 picks · 471 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
269 picks · 244 bans
53%
Lina
Lina
253 picks · 361 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 45%
Hero pool strength61% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total82% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:27
Aster.Aries 30%Vici Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 52:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenUlu
59% · 22 games50% · 63 games
Magnuspoyoyo
Magnus
Lycan
Lycan生死
40% · 29 games47% · 26 games
Queen of PainOri
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void Spiritphoenix
54% · 124 games51% · 144 games
PangolierELeVeN
Pangolier
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageTK
49% · 11 games57% · 65 games
EarthshakerPyw
Earthshaker
Lion
LionFantasy
42% · 112 gameslittle data
SilencerDy
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct18:33
Aster.Aries 30%Vici Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 43:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUlu
46% · 76 games56% · 96 games
Templar AssassinOri
Templar Assassin
Void Spirit
Void Spiritphoenix
44% · 172 games57% · 88 games
Troll Warlordpoyoyo
Troll Warlord
Batrider
Batrider生死
43% · 71 game56% · 118 games
TidehunterELeVeN
Tidehunter
Sand King
Sand KingTK
47% · 57 games51% · 93 games
Keeper of the LightPyw
Keeper of the Light
Disruptor
DisruptorFantasy
52% · 41 game40% · 22 games
Ogre MagiDy
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction missed41:28
Aster.Aries 29%Vici Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 41:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerUlu
61% · 24 games47% · 118 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Leshrac
Leshracphoenix
53% · 95 games45% · 82 games
Spectrepoyoyo
Spectre
Mars
Mars生死
53% · 126 games47% · 73 games
Legion CommanderELeVeN
Legion Commander
Silencer
SilencerFantasy
little data43% · 21 game
Skywrath MagePyw
Skywrath Mage
Lion
LionTK
51% · 115 games50% · 66 games
Treant ProtectorDy
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 82%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3