ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
T1loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Lionsignature
Save- · 21 game
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 12 games
Timbersawsignature
DM · 11 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 10 games
Oracleoften banned
1ls · 8 games
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 7 games
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 7 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
412 picks · 191 bans
Hoodwink
357 picks · 134 bans
Nyx Assassin
298 picks · 604 bans
Puck
282 picks · 623 bans
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 360 bans
Mars
279 picks · 469 bans
Winter Wyvern
269 picks · 241 bans
Lina
252 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:36
Virtus.pro 67%T1 33%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:05:44.
Game 2prediction correct26:14
Virtus.pro 67%T1 33%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 67%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2