ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SG e-sportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Elder Titansignature
y` · 31 game
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 31 game
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 26 games
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 22 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 20 games
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
412 picks · 191 bans
Hoodwink
356 picks · 134 bans
Nyx Assassin
296 picks · 605 bans
Puck
283 picks · 622 bans
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 360 bans
Mars
280 picks · 469 bans
Winter Wyvern
268 picks · 239 bans
Lina
250 picks · 361 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:13
LGD Gaming 83%SG e-sports 17%
The model gave 83% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 40:32.
Game 2prediction correct51:40
LGD Gaming 83%SG e-sports 17%
The model gave 83% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 52:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 83%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2