ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Team Liquid
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
Tinysignature
Taiga · 18 games
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 15 games
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 13 games
Marssignature
Boxi · 13 games
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 13 games
Void Spirit
Boxi · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
412 picks · 191 bans
Hoodwink
356 picks · 134 bans
Nyx Assassin
296 picks · 605 bans
Puck
283 picks · 622 bans
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 360 bans
Mars
280 picks · 469 bans
Winter Wyvern
268 picks · 239 bans
Lina
250 picks · 361 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 23%
Hero pool strength51% Alliance
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total65% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:22
Alliance 65%Team Liquid 35%
The model gave 65% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 36:54.
Game 2prediction missed19:39
Alliance 65%Team Liquid 35%
The model gave 65% on Alliance — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2