ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 25 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 19 games
Enchantressoften banned
VANSKOR · 17 games
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 11 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 9 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
412 picks · 191 bans
Hoodwink
356 picks · 134 bans
Nyx Assassin
296 picks · 605 bans
Puck
283 picks · 622 bans
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 360 bans
Mars
280 picks · 469 bans
Winter Wyvern
268 picks · 239 bans
Lina
250 picks · 361 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 17%
Hero pool strength60% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:25
Team Empire 75%beastcoast 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 41:46.
Game 2prediction missed15:39
Team Empire 75%beastcoast 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Empire — the game was taken by beastcoast in 34:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 75%
Accuracy by game1 of 2