BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 1:0series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Tusksignature
rue · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 22 games
Jakirosignature
Panto · 20 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 20 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 19 games
Ringmastersignature
rue · 19 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 17 games
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 16 games
Tundra Esports
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 33 games
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 23 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 23 games
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 19 games
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 18 games
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
610 picks · 940 bans
Tusk
535 picks · 438 bans
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 643 bans
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 645 bans
Shadow Demon
441 picks · 961 bans
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 656 bans
Mars
392 picks · 537 bans
Warlock
386 picks · 236 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:17
Team Spirit 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightYatoro
KezPure~
PuckMirele
Invokerbzm
SlardarCollapse
Brewmaster33
LargoPanto
TinyAri
Hoodwinkrue
MiranaWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1