ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
409 picks · 190 bans
Hoodwink
357 picks · 134 bans
Nyx Assassin
296 picks · 602 bans
Puck
283 picks · 620 bans
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 359 bans
Mars
281 picks · 470 bans
Winter Wyvern
270 picks · 236 bans
Lina
249 picks · 358 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 18%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:29
Alliance 65%beastcoast 35%
The model gave 65% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 51:46.
Game 2prediction missed8:25
Alliance 65%beastcoast 35%
The model gave 65% on Alliance — the game was taken by beastcoast in 25:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2