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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Creepwaveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 30 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 20 games
75%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 18 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 17 games
76%
Axe
Axesignature
Collapse · 15 games
80%

Creepwave

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Adzantick · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kataomi · 7 games
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 7 games
71%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 6 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Chuvash · 6 games
17%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Malr1ne · 6 games
83%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MiLAN · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
408 picks · 190 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
357 picks · 134 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
295 picks · 600 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
283 picks · 618 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 359 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
280 picks · 469 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
270 picks · 236 bans
54%
Lina
Lina
249 picks · 358 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 47%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:18
Team Spirit 64%Creepwave 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
47% · 55 games45% · 38 games
SvenCrystallis
Sven
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 125 games50% · 60 games
Queen of Painbzm
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsCollapse
54% · 191 game53% · 184 games
TidehunterATF
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixMira
40% · 142 games54% · 262 games
LionChuvash
Lion
Disruptor
DisruptorMiposhka
53% · 47 games42% · 16 games
OmniknightFishman
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct37:9
Team Spirit 67%Creepwave 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
54% · 80 games54% · 30 games
SvenCrystallis
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
45% · 83 games48% · 56 games
UnderlordATF
Underlord
Sand King
Sand KingCollapse
46% · 33 games46% · 193 games
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMiposhka
47% · 74 games47% · 81 game
Dark WillowChuvash
Dark Willow
Mirana
MiranaMira
61% · 100 games60% · 10 games
BaneFishman
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 74%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2