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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 19 games
42%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 18 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 14 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 14 games
57%
Mars
Marssignature
Boxi · 13 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Taiga · 12 games
33%

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 31 game
77%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 30 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 26 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
74%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 21 game
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 21 game
62%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 20 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
408 picks · 190 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
357 picks · 134 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
295 picks · 600 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
283 picks · 618 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 359 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
280 picks · 469 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
270 picks · 236 bans
54%
Lina
Lina
249 picks · 358 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 63%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total82% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:27
Team Liquid 31%LGD Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 27:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
52% · 96 games50% · 133 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Timbersaw
TimbersawBoxi
44% · 138 games51% · 172 games
PangolierXiao8
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void Spiritqojqva
47% · 195 games45% · 70 games
Sand KingFaith_bian
Sand King
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTaiga
56% · 166 games50% · 128 games
Keeper of the LightXinQ
Keeper of the Light
Bane
BaneiNSaNiA
65% · 16 games50% · 108 games
Elder Titany`
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct31:48
Team Liquid 28%LGD Gaming 72%
The model gave 72% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 44:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperqojqva
little data66% · 12 games
Night StalkerAme
Night Stalker
Pudge
PudgemiCKe
little data46% · 71 game
LeshracXiao8
Leshrac
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBoxi
41% · 63 games65% · 31 game
SlardarFaith_bian
Slardar
Pangolier
PangolierTaiga
42% · 64 games50% · 4 games
Skywrath MageXinQ
Skywrath Mage
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
45% · 10 games67% · 19 games
Treant Protectory`
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 82%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2