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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 20 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 12 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 11 games
73%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 9 games
89%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
1ls · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 7 games
86%
Invoker
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 7 games
71%

Tundra Esports

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 15 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sneyking · 14 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 14 games
79%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
33 · 10 games
100%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 188 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
357 picks · 134 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
294 picks · 601 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
282 picks · 620 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 358 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
280 picks · 470 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
269 picks · 235 bans
54%
Lina
Lina
251 picks · 359 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:17
Virtus.pro 58%Tundra Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 49:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerNightfall
45% · 57 games47% · 72 games
Keeper of the LightNine
Keeper of the Light
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritgpK~
54% · 49 games44% · 51 game
Lycan33
Lycan
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
52% · 57 games45% · 48 games
WeaverSkiter
Weaver
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSave-
61% · 33 games55% · 39 games
EarthshakerSneyking
Earthshaker
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern1ls
58% · 26 games45% · 12 games
OmniknightFata
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct39:13
Virtus.pro 54%Tundra Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassingpK~
58% · 82 games51% · 151 game
Keeper of the LightNine
Keeper of the Light
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNightfall
45% · 206 games50% · 252 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Mars
MarsDM
49% · 276 games52% · 13 games
Visage33
Visage
Phoenix
Phoenix1ls
51% · 146 games51% · 200 games
TidehunterSneyking
Tidehunter
Lion
LionSave-
40% · 231 game55% · 325 games
Nyx AssassinFata
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 62%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2