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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Empireloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 18 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 18 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 14 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Taiga · 12 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 12 games
58%

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 24 games
71%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 19 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
VANSKOR · 17 games
59%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 11 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 11 games
55%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
80%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 9 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
sayuw · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 188 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 134 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
294 picks · 597 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
282 picks · 619 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 358 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
279 picks · 469 bans
48%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
269 picks · 235 bans
54%
Lina
Lina
250 picks · 356 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 71%
Hero pool strength60% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:8
Team Liquid 36%Team Empire 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusmiCKe
60% · 34 games55% · 87 games
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
Ember Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey Kingqojqva
50% · 88 games57% · 42 games
Phantom LancerSmiling Knight
Phantom Lancer
Mars
MarsBoxi
48% · 243 games43% · 130 games
PangolierShachlo
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTaiga
50% · 77 games48% · 84 games
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
Keeper of the Light
Bane
BaneiNSaNiA
56% · 11 games47% · 110 games
HoodwinkVANSKOR
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct12:26
Team Liquid 36%Team Empire 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 32:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenmiCKe
40% · 27 games65% · 29 games
LifestealerSmiling Knight
Lifestealer
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritqojqva
43% · 49 games53% · 87 games
Linakiyotaka
Lina
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderBoxi
43% · 21 game38% · 14 games
Night StalkerShachlo
Night Stalker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritTaiga
48% · 75 games60% · 46 games
Earthshakersayuw
Earthshaker
Omniknight
OmniknightiNSaNiA
51% · 10 games57% · 6 games
LichVANSKOR
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 74%
Accuracy by game1 of 2