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BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Heroicwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 28 games
54%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 26 games
58%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 17 games
53%

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 30 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 29 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 20 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 19 games
84%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 18 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 940 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
535 picks · 438 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 643 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 645 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
440 picks · 961 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 655 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 537 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
386 picks · 236 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total71% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:31
Natus Vincere 61%Heroic 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Heroic in 58:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzgotthejuice
59% · 90 games56% · 204 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNiku
49% · 206 games47% · 197 games
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Slardar
Slardarpma
47% · 326 games47% · 340 games
TinyTaiLung
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonZayac
53% · 356 games49% · 123 games
DazzleKJ
Dazzle
Disruptor
DisruptorRiddys
48% · 341 game48% · 455 games
JakiroThiolicor
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 71%
Series resultHeroic 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1