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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Empireloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 31 game
77%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 25 games
76%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 21 game
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 20 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 19 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
83%

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 23 games
70%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 18 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
VANSKOR · 17 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 11 games
55%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 10 games
70%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
80%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 9 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
sayuw · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
410 picks · 191 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
354 picks · 134 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
293 picks · 597 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
283 picks · 624 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 359 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
272 picks · 472 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
268 picks · 235 bans
54%
Lina
Lina
251 picks · 356 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 76%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:27
LGD Gaming 48%Team Empire 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 47:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzAme
little data56% · 24 games
LycanShachlo
Lycan
Batrider
BatriderXiao8
46% · 73 games46% · 31 game
SlarkSmiling Knight
Slark
Axe
AxeFaith_bian
51% · 57 games53% · 99 games
Linakiyotaka
Lina
Dark Willow
Dark WillowXinQ
45% · 40 games44% · 22 games
Earthshakersayuw
Earthshaker
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
61% · 37 games48% · 31 game
DisruptorVANSKOR
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct11:30
LGD Gaming 49%Team Empire 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 30:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAme
45% · 118 games56% · 80 games
Phantom LancerSmiling Knight
Phantom Lancer
Doom
DoomXiao8
52% · 71 game57% · 125 games
BeastmasterShachlo
Beastmaster
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightFaith_bian
47% · 151 game54% · 144 games
Invokerkiyotaka
Invoker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeXinQ
40% · 158 games46% · 166 games
HoodwinkVANSKOR
Hoodwink
Mars
Marsy`
44% · 259 games60% · 242 games
Nyx Assassinsayuw
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2