ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 17 games
Tinysignature
Taiga · 17 games
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 15 games
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 14 games
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
Taiga · 12 games
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 12 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
410 picks · 191 bans
Hoodwink
354 picks · 134 bans
Nyx Assassin
293 picks · 597 bans
Puck
283 picks · 624 bans
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 359 bans
Mars
272 picks · 472 bans
Winter Wyvern
268 picks · 235 bans
Lina
251 picks · 356 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 15%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:21
Team Liquid 58%beastcoast 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by beastcoast in 34:33.
Game 2prediction correct43:18
Team Liquid 58%beastcoast 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2