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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 30 games
80%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 20 games
75%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 17 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 17 games
76%
Invoker
Invokersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
67%

Tundra Esports

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 15 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sneyking · 14 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 14 games
79%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 10 games
70%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Nine · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
406 picks · 191 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
354 picks · 134 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
293 picks · 594 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
283 picks · 621 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 358 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
269 picks · 472 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
268 picks · 235 bans
54%
Lina
Lina
251 picks · 356 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:33
Team Spirit 60%Tundra Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
45% · 81 game58% · 105 games
Faceless VoidSkiter
Faceless Void
Mars
MarsCollapse
48% · 165 games49% · 102 games
BatriderNine
Batrider
Leshrac
LeshracTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 83 games41% · 9 games
Visage33
Visage
Lion
LionMira
50% · 160 games54% · 174 games
PangolierSneyking
Pangolier
Omniknight
OmniknightMiposhka
54% · 16 games46% · 115 games
GyrocopterFata
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction missed5:26
Team Spirit 63%Tundra Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 23:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaTORONTOTOKYO
45% · 69 games47% · 18 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Medusa
MedusaYatoro
51% · 101 game51% · 122 games
Void SpiritNine
Void Spirit
Axe
AxeCollapse
49% · 91 game58% · 60 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
42% · 82 games50% · 140 games
LionSneyking
Lion
Windranger
WindrangerMira
57% · 55 games50% · 58 games
PangolierFata
Pangolier
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 73%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2