ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 13 games
Marssignature
Frank · 11 games
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 11 games
Pucksignature
Leostyle · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Leostyle · 8 games
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 8 games
Tidehuntersignature
Frank · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
406 picks · 191 bans
Hoodwink
354 picks · 134 bans
Nyx Assassin
293 picks · 594 bans
Puck
283 picks · 621 bans
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 358 bans
Mars
269 picks · 472 bans
Winter Wyvern
268 picks · 235 bans
Lina
251 picks · 356 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength60% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:13
T1 52%Thunder Awaken 48%
The model gave 52% on T1 — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 31:40.
Game 2prediction missed30:9
T1 52%Thunder Awaken 48%
The model gave 52% on T1 — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 26:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 52%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2