ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 25 games
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 21 game
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 20 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 19 games
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
405 picks · 191 bans
Hoodwink
354 picks · 134 bans
Nyx Assassin
292 picks · 595 bans
Puck
283 picks · 622 bans
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 358 bans
Mars
270 picks · 472 bans
Winter Wyvern
268 picks · 235 bans
Lina
255 picks · 354 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 11%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:36
LGD Gaming 86%beastcoast 14%
The model gave 86% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by beastcoast in 42:57.
Game 2prediction missed35:38
LGD Gaming 86%beastcoast 14%
The model gave 86% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by beastcoast in 51:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 86%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2