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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 20 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 12 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 11 games
73%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 9 games
89%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
1ls · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 7 games
86%
Invoker
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 7 games
71%

Thunder Awaken

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 11 games
91%
Mars
Marssignature
Frank · 9 games
89%
Puck
Pucksignature
Leostyle · 9 games
89%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Leostyle · 8 games
63%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 8 games
88%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Frank · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
403 picks · 189 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
353 picks · 134 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
291 picks · 592 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
283 picks · 617 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 357 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
268 picks · 233 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
267 picks · 470 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
251 picks · 354 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:9
Virtus.pro 58%Thunder Awaken 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 31:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerNightfall
53% · 88 games64% · 110 games
TerrorbladeMnz
Terrorblade
Viper
VipergpK~
48% · 119 games44% · 131 game
Void SpiritLeostyle
Void Spirit
Lina
LinaSave-
49% · 151 game44% · 207 games
MarsFrank
Mars
Magnus
MagnusDM
53% · 84 games47% · 82 games
Dark WillowMoOz
Dark Willow
Phoenix
Phoenix1ls
55% · 226 games44% · 138 games
AbaddonMjz
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct25:8
Virtus.pro 56%Thunder Awaken 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 22:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNightfall
61% · 107 games48% · 52 games
WeaverMnz
Weaver
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritgpK~
57% · 138 games41% · 136 games
Storm SpiritLeostyle
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
55% · 140 games41% · 225 games
MarsFrank
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSave-
58% · 84 games41% · 120 games
LinaMoOz
Lina
Phoenix
Phoenix1ls
52% · 219 games48% · 155 games
Ancient ApparitionMjz
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 65%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2