OG vs Tundra Esports — prediction BLAST Slam VI · Dota 2

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BLAST Slam VI · BO1

result vs prediction

OGwin 1:0

series probability

25%75%

probability at match start · final 1:0

Tundra Esportsloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire

Daze · 31 game

52%

Shadow Demonsignature

Tims · 26 games

65%

Dragon Knightsignature

Yopaj · 23 games

65%

Jakirooften banned

Skem · 22 games

41%

Templar Assassinoften banned

Shad · 22 games

50%

Axeoften banned

Force · 20 games

45%

Beastmasteroften banned

MikSa` · 20 games

45%

Marssignature

Force · 20 games

70%

Tundra Esports

Batrideroften banned

Ari · 33 games

58%

Axesignature

33 · 25 games

60%

Banesignature

Whitemon · 23 games

74%

Invokersignature

bzm · 23 games

83%

Pugna

Whitemon · 21 game

52%

Hoodwinksignature

Ari · 19 games

68%

Ursasignature

Pure~ · 18 games

67%

Jakirosignature

Whitemon · 17 games

71%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

614 picks · 942 bans

50%

Tusk

540 picks · 439 bans

46%

Centaur Warrunner

488 picks · 645 bans

56%

Dragon Knight

488 picks · 650 bans

48%

Shadow Demon

445 picks · 964 bans

54%

Ember Spirit

402 picks · 654 bans

57%

Mars

394 picks · 536 bans

48%

Warlock

386 picks · 236 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)57% vs 72%

Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports

Head-to-head1 – 2

Model total75% Tundra Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed47:19

OG 34%Tundra Esports 66%

The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 45:09.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo