ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Creepwaveloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Creepwave
Marsoften banned
ATF · 10 games
Void Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 8 games
Disruptor
Kataomi · 7 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 7 games
Bane
Fishman · 6 games
Death Prophetsignature
Malr1ne · 6 games
Enigmasignature
MiLAN · 6 games
Hoodwinksignature
Chuvash · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
403 picks · 189 bans
Hoodwink
353 picks · 134 bans
Nyx Assassin
291 picks · 592 bans
Puck
283 picks · 617 bans
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 357 bans
Winter Wyvern
268 picks · 233 bans
Mars
267 picks · 470 bans
Lina
251 picks · 354 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:13
T1 49%Creepwave 51%
The model gave 51% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 31:16.
Game 2prediction correct35:41
T1 49%Creepwave 51%
The model gave 51% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 50:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 51%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2