ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
T1loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 15 games
Clockwerk
Sneyking · 14 games
Puckoften banned
Nine · 13 games
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 12 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 10 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 10 games
Winter Wyvern
Nine · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
405 picks · 190 bans
Hoodwink
353 picks · 136 bans
Nyx Assassin
297 picks · 597 bans
Puck
283 picks · 623 bans
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 357 bans
Winter Wyvern
271 picks · 233 bans
Mars
269 picks · 469 bans
Ancient Apparition
256 picks · 423 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:11
T1 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on T1 — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:26.
Game 2prediction missed27:40
T1 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on T1 — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 45:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 51%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2