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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Creepwaveloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 11 games
91%
Mars
Marssignature
Frank · 9 games
89%
Puck
Pucksignature
Leostyle · 9 games
89%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Leostyle · 8 games
63%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 8 games
88%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 8 games
75%

Creepwave

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 10 games
40%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 7 games
71%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 7 games
57%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Malr1ne · 6 games
83%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kataomi · 6 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MiLAN · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Chuvash · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
405 picks · 190 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
353 picks · 136 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
297 picks · 597 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
283 picks · 623 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 357 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
271 picks · 233 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
269 picks · 469 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
256 picks · 423 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:43
Thunder Awaken 45%Creepwave 55%
The model gave 55% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 38:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMnz
47% · 117 games55% · 83 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Batrider
BatriderLeostyle
43% · 101 game54% · 150 games
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Venomancer
VenomancerFrank
44% · 34 games54% · 95 games
TidehunterATF
Tidehunter
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMoOz
47% · 171 game56% · 81 game
RubickChuvash
Rubick
Omniknight
OmniknightMjz
42% · 17 games54% · 31 game
DisruptorFishman
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed41:22
Thunder Awaken 48%Creepwave 52%
The model gave 52% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 38:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMnz
51% · 93 games48% · 28 games
SlarkCrystallis
Slark
Leshrac
LeshracLeostyle
42% · 85 games52% · 82 games
RazorATF
Razor
Sand King
Sand KingFrank
50% · 48 games57% · 88 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterMjz
47% · 79 games58% · 24 games
EarthshakerChuvash
Earthshaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMoOz
47% · 37 games50% · 120 games
Winter WyvernFishman
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2