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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 11 games
91%
Puck
Pucksignature
Leostyle · 9 games
89%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Leostyle · 8 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Frank · 8 games
100%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 8 games
88%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 8 games
75%

Tundra Esports

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 14 games
79%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sneyking · 14 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 12 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 10 games
70%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Nine · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
403 picks · 189 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
354 picks · 136 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
299 picks · 597 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
284 picks · 623 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 357 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
271 picks · 232 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
268 picks · 470 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
258 picks · 426 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:20
Thunder Awaken 58%Tundra Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMnz
55% · 61 game52% · 48 games
Lycan33
Lycan
Broodmother
BroodmotherFrank
61% · 20 games40% · 81 game
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Kunkka
KunkkaLeostyle
47% · 43 games50% · 200 games
Void SpiritNine
Void Spirit
Rubick
RubickMoOz
46% · 105 games68% · 53 games
EarthshakerSneyking
Earthshaker
Mars
MarsMjz
45% · 161 game62% · 8 games
OmniknightFata
Omniknight
Game 2prediction missed4:23
Thunder Awaken 53%Tundra Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 23:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMnz
46% · 82 games39% · 49 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Broodmother
BroodmotherFrank
49% · 29 games57% · 10 games
Lycan33
Lycan
Kunkka
KunkkaLeostyle
58% · 72 games52% · 69 games
Earth SpiritNine
Earth Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMoOz
55% · 49 games41% · 30 games
EnigmaSneyking
Enigma
Lich
LichMjz
little data54% · 74 games
AbaddonFata
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 59%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2