ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Empireloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 22 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 18 games
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 16 games
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 12 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 9 games
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
sayuw · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
403 picks · 189 bans
Hoodwink
353 picks · 136 bans
Nyx Assassin
298 picks · 596 bans
Puck
284 picks · 623 bans
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 357 bans
Winter Wyvern
271 picks · 231 bans
Mars
267 picks · 470 bans
Ancient Apparition
258 picks · 426 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 80%
Hero pool strength61% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:18
Alliance 44%Team Empire 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Alliance in 36:34.
Game 2prediction missed27:10
Alliance 44%Team Empire 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Alliance in 35:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 56%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2