ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
T1loss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 29 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 21 game
Lionsignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 17 games
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 17 games
Axesignature
Collapse · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
403 picks · 188 bans
Hoodwink
353 picks · 136 bans
Nyx Assassin
298 picks · 596 bans
Puck
284 picks · 622 bans
Dragon Knight
279 picks · 358 bans
Mars
268 picks · 471 bans
Winter Wyvern
268 picks · 230 bans
Ancient Apparition
260 picks · 426 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 59%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:35
T1 26%Team Spirit 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:30.
Game 2prediction correct36:39
T1 26%Team Spirit 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:01:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 74%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2