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i-League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 26 games
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 24 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 23 games
48%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 22 games
64%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 21 game
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 21 game
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ori · 19 games
58%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 19 games
47%

Team Aster

Puck
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 23 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 21 game
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
55%
Lion
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LaNm · 15 games
53%
Axe
Axesignature
Xxs · 14 games
71%
Luna
Lunasignature
LaNm · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
404 picks · 190 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 136 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
299 picks · 597 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
283 picks · 626 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
279 picks · 357 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
270 picks · 473 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
268 picks · 229 bans
54%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
260 picks · 429 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total53% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:24
Vici Gaming 49%Team Aster 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 29:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterpoyoyo
50% · 44 games47% · 107 games
Monkey KingMonet
Monkey King
Puck
PuckOri
49% · 209 games58% · 119 games
LinaWhite丶Album
Lina
Batrider
BatriderELeVeN
44% · 59 games53% · 123 games
PangolierXxs
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaPyw
46% · 107 games49% · 57 games
Shadow DemonBoBoKa
Shadow Demon
Omniknight
OmniknightDy
50% · 6 games61% · 19 games
ChenLaNm
Chen
Game 2prediction correct44:18
Vici Gaming 51%Team Aster 49%
The model gave 51% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorpoyoyo
53% · 39 games57% · 35 games
Phantom AssassinMonet
Phantom Assassin
Sand King
Sand KingELeVeN
51% · 40 games47% · 161 game
PuckWhite丶Album
Puck
Lina
LinaOri
49% · 90 games36% · 31 game
Legion CommanderXxs
Legion Commander
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPyw
51% · 53 games44% · 36 games
Shadow ShamanBoBoKa
Shadow Shaman
Disruptor
DisruptorDy
62% · 47 games50% · 6 games
LichLaNm
Lich
Game 3prediction missed49:51
Vici Gaming 53%Team Aster 47%
The model gave 53% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 1:12:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawELeVeN
51% · 96 games50% · 59 games
Troll WarlordMonet
Troll Warlord
Sven
Svenpoyoyo
61% · 15 games58% · 26 games
Queen of PainWhite丶Album
Queen of Pain
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritOri
47% · 94 games46% · 49 games
Dark SeerXxs
Dark Seer
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPyw
51% · 61 game56% · 34 games
Shadow DemonLaNm
Shadow Demon
Silencer
SilencerDy
little data44% · 98 games
Earth SpiritBoBoKa
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 53%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3