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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Spider Pigzsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

Spider Pigzs

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 20 games
45%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
44%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 15 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 15 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 13 games
23%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 13 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 12 games
42%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
410 picks · 190 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
357 picks · 135 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
302 picks · 601 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
288 picks · 629 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
282 picks · 357 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
271 picks · 475 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
267 picks · 228 bans
54%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
262 picks · 431 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% PuckChamp
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:27
PuckChamp 50%Spider Pigzs 50%
The model gave 50% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 37:13.
Game 2prediction correct8:30
PuckChamp 50%Spider Pigzs 50%
The model gave 50% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 37:32.
Game 3prediction correct31:14
PuckChamp 50%Spider Pigzs 50%
The model gave 50% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 46:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 50%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3