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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Silkloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 24 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 22 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 19 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 17 games
18%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 16 games
44%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 15 games
47%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
TA2000 · 14 games
79%

Silk

Axe
Axeoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Kiri · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
100%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
CHAAANNN · 1 game
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
DaaD- · 1 game
0%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Leostyle · 1 game
0%
Magnus
Magnus
Genek · 1 game
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 938 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 437 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
489 picks · 644 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 650 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
444 picks · 956 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 653 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 532 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
380 picks · 234 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:13
Nigma Galaxy 64%Silk 36%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 40:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
42% · 371 game48% · 301 game
BeastmasterDaaD-
Beastmaster
Largo
LargoNo!ob
41% · 29 games56% · 297 games
BatriderAdrx
Batrider
Slark
Slarkrincyq
52% · 73 games55% · 406 games
Ember SpiritGenek
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
40% · 217 games67% · 68 games
Treant ProtectorCHAAANNN
Treant Protector
Jakiro
JakiroGH
45% · 382 games
Game 2prediction correct37:12
Nigma Galaxy 69%Silk 31%
The model gave 69% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 24:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendrincyq
50% · 162 games53% · 109 games
Dark SeerAdrx
Dark Seer
Lycan
LycanNo!ob
44% · 64 games57% · 49 games
RazorDaaD-
Razor
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
46% · 392 games50% · 368 games
TuskGenek
Tusk
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOmaR
51% · 145 games44% · 381 game
JakiroCHAAANNN
Jakiro
Naga Siren
Naga SirenGH
58% · 144 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 81%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2