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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fivewin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 18 games
72%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 13 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
jAMES · 11 games
36%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Actor · 10 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 9 games
78%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
633 · 9 games
56%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Askold · 9 games
22%

B8 Esports

Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 9 games
78%
Magnus
Magnus
Limitless · 9 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 9 games
22%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
44%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 8 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Davai · 7 games
71%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Watson · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
420 picks · 191 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 137 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
311 picks · 615 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
297 picks · 659 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
283 picks · 358 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
281 picks · 446 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
278 picks · 497 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
263 picks · 227 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Fantastic Five
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:8
Fantastic Five 55%B8 Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 29:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerKami
53% · 61 game45% · 124 games
MedusaWatson
Medusa
Puck
PuckAskold
48% · 323 games51% · 110 games
InvokerDendi
Invoker
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBlizzy
49% · 171 game60% · 43 games
BrewmasterLimitless
Brewmaster
Treant Protector
Treant Protector633
57% · 76 games44% · 161 game
HoodwinkKingR
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowjAMES
48% · 137 games51% · 330 games
Lion[T]SA
Lion
Game 2prediction missed4:29
Fantastic Five 54%B8 Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 25:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageKami
45% · 33 games46% · 66 games
Phantom LancerWatson
Phantom Lancer
Puck
PuckAskold
50% · 268 games50% · 160 games
LeshracDendi
Leshrac
Mars
MarsBlizzy
51% · 260 games52% · 170 games
TidehunterLimitless
Tidehunter
Enchantress
Enchantress633
44% · 143 games49% · 166 games
Hoodwink[T]SA
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowjAMES
50% · 97 games57% · 239 games
Nyx AssassinKingR
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct45:20
Fantastic Five 55%B8 Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 38:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreKami
40% · 62 games49% · 144 games
LinaDendi
Lina
Puck
PuckAskold
50% · 300 games58% · 90 games
Monkey KingWatson
Monkey King
Axe
AxeBlizzy
44% · 147 games51% · 173 games
Dragon KnightLimitless
Dragon Knight
Rubick
RubickjAMES
54% · 94 games46% · 127 games
Hoodwink[T]SA
Hoodwink
Disruptor
Disruptor633
54% · 40 games57% · 109 games
Winter WyvernKingR
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteFantastic Five · 57%
Series resultFantastic Five 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3