Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
V-Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 23 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 16 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 14 games
Linasignature
hAze · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 13 games
Axeoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Timbersawsignature
laise · 12 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
420 picks · 191 bans
Hoodwink
355 picks · 137 bans
Nyx Assassin
312 picks · 614 bans
Puck
296 picks · 661 bans
Dragon Knight
284 picks · 358 bans
Ancient Apparition
282 picks · 448 bans
Mars
280 picks · 496 bans
Winter Wyvern
262 picks · 227 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 66%
Hero pool strength56% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:37
HellRaisers 41%V-Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 27:58.
Game 2prediction correct32:10
HellRaisers 41%V-Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 39:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 59%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2