BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 1:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:0
GamerLegionloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Disruptor
Riddys · 28 games
Warlock
Riddys · 26 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
Marsoften banned
pma · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 18 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 17 games
GamerLegion
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 15 games
Jakirosignature
Speeed · 14 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 11 games
Batridersignature
Speeed · 10 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Fayde · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 9 games
Snapfire
Bignum · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
608 picks · 938 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 437 bans
Centaur Warrunner
488 picks · 644 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 650 bans
Shadow Demon
443 picks · 956 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 653 bans
Mars
392 picks · 531 bans
Warlock
380 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:12
Natus Vincere 70%GamerLegion 30%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
ClinkzYamSun
Ember SpiritNiku
Monkey KingRCY
Slardarpma
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
GrimstrokeRiddys
JakiroSpeeed
Shadow DemonZayac
Dark WillowBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 85%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1