Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzswin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qqwerty44loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 18 games
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 15 games
Lion
OmaR · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 14 games
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 13 games
Abaddonoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Fervian · 11 games
qwerty44
Grimstroke
Fezor · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Fezor · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
Hoodwink
Fezor · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Rvze · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
428 picks · 194 bans
Hoodwink
350 picks · 136 bans
Nyx Assassin
309 picks · 624 bans
Puck
302 picks · 669 bans
Ancient Apparition
286 picks · 458 bans
Dragon Knight
283 picks · 359 bans
Mars
282 picks · 505 bans
Winter Wyvern
262 picks · 226 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Spider Pigzs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:24
Spider Pigzs 52%qwerty44 48%
The model gave 52% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 38:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunalil pleb
MedusaKom4rt
LinaNo!ob
HoodwinkUSHUSHUSH
RazorFunn1k
Winter WyvernFezor
Treant ProtectorLeBronDota
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Game 2prediction correct44:13
Spider Pigzs 53%qwerty44 47%
The model gave 53% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 34:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelil pleb
LunaKom4rt
SnapfireNo!ob
InvokerUSHUSHUSH
Sand KingFunn1k
ClockwerkFezor
HoodwinkOmaR
Faceless VoidLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 54%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2