OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 20 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 19 games
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
432 picks · 192 bans
Hoodwink
345 picks · 135 bans
Nyx Assassin
309 picks · 629 bans
Puck
300 picks · 676 bans
Ancient Apparition
291 picks · 462 bans
Mars
289 picks · 508 bans
Dragon Knight
279 picks · 354 bans
Winter Wyvern
261 picks · 225 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total70% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:23
Invictus Gaming 30%LGD Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 31:54.
Game 2prediction correct41:15
Invictus Gaming 30%LGD Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 27:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 70%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2