Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Empirewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 19 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 17 games
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 16 games
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 12 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 8 games
Tusk
sayuw · 7 games
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
432 picks · 189 bans
Hoodwink
341 picks · 135 bans
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 627 bans
Puck
300 picks · 676 bans
Ancient Apparition
291 picks · 459 bans
Mars
287 picks · 514 bans
Dragon Knight
277 picks · 352 bans
Lina
259 picks · 354 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 79%
Hero pool strength59% Team Empire
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total56% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:24
PuckChamp 44%Team Empire 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 31:30.
Game 2prediction correct15:36
PuckChamp 44%Team Empire 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 34:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 56%
Series resultTeam Empire 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2