OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Invictus Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
433 picks · 185 bans
Hoodwink
340 picks · 130 bans
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 628 bans
Puck
300 picks · 679 bans
Ancient Apparition
294 picks · 463 bans
Mars
287 picks · 515 bans
Dragon Knight
275 picks · 351 bans
Lina
262 picks · 352 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Elephant
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total57% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:28
Elephant 43%Invictus Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 40:50.
Game 2prediction correct15:34
Elephant 43%Invictus Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 31:11.
Game 3prediction correct10:26
Elephant 43%Invictus Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 32:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 57%
Series resultElephant 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3