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LOOT.BET Pro Series Season 7. Юго-Восточная Азия · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team SMGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 16 games
56%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 13 games
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 12 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 11 games
55%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
RR · 11 games
64%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Force · 11 games
55%

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 17 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 11 games
64%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 11 games
82%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 11 games
36%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 10 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
AhFu · 10 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 10 games
90%
Mars
Marssignature
Ohaiyo · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
439 picks · 183 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
335 picks · 128 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
313 picks · 627 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
311 picks · 679 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
304 picks · 467 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
295 picks · 522 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
271 picks · 345 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
261 picks · 357 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total54% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:47
Execration 49%Team SMG 51%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Execration in 48:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaBob
47% · 140 games50% · 67 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPalos
51% · 163 games43% · 177 games
MarsMoon
Mars
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinRR
55% · 204 games57% · 98 games
Pangolierkpii
Pangolier
53% · 62 games
Shadow DemonAhFu
Shadow Demon
42% · 103 games
AbaddonRoddgeee
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct36:42
Execration 46%Team SMG 54%
The model gave 54% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 47:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPalos
42% · 117 games57% · 71 game
MedusaMidOne
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
54% · 83 games48% · 83 games
Death ProphetMoon
Death Prophet
Abaddon
AbaddonRR
44% · 159 games54% · 31 game
Brewmasterkpii
Brewmaster
55% · 72 games
Shadow DemonAhFu
Shadow Demon
54% · 102 games
Nyx AssassinRoddgeee
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct38:38
Execration 47%Team SMG 53%
The model gave 53% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 46:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinBob
54% · 114 games42% · 54 games
LunaMidOne
Luna
Leshrac
LeshracPalos
51% · 110 games54% · 73 games
Winter WyvernMoon
Winter Wyvern
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRR
53% · 70 games52% · 40 games
Dark Seerkpii
Dark Seer
46% · 55 games
TuskAhFu
Tusk
44% · 72 games
AbaddonRoddgeee
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 54%
Series resultTeam SMG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3