OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Elephantwin 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Vici Gaming
Grimstroke
Dy · 25 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 24 games
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 21 game
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 21 game
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 20 games
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 19 games
Lion
Pyw · 19 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
439 picks · 180 bans
Hoodwink
332 picks · 126 bans
Nyx Assassin
317 picks · 627 bans
Puck
315 picks · 682 bans
Ancient Apparition
307 picks · 474 bans
Mars
297 picks · 527 bans
Dragon Knight
272 picks · 345 bans
Lina
260 picks · 362 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 51%
Hero pool strength57% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total63% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:27
Elephant 37%Vici Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 34:55.
Game 2prediction correct21:8
Elephant 37%Vici Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 26:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 63%
Series resultElephant 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2