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ESL One Fall 2021. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Creepwavewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 20 games
70%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 13 games
54%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 12 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 12 games
42%
Viper
Viperoften banned
hAze · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 11 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
laise · 11 games
73%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 10 games
70%

Creepwave

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 10 games
30%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
88%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 8 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 7 games
71%
Bane
Banesignature
Fishman · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MiLAN · 6 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 6 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Chuvash · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
438 picks · 178 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
329 picks · 125 bans
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
318 picks · 625 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
312 picks · 687 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
306 picks · 474 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
295 picks · 528 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
269 picks · 343 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
262 picks · 360 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:18
V-Gaming 51%Creepwave 49%
The model gave 51% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 30:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTA2000
46% · 96 games48% · 335 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinhAze
58% · 143 games48% · 24 games
SvenCrystallis
Sven
Timbersaw
Timbersawlaise
49% · 106 games49% · 105 games
RazorATF
Razor
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMalady
49% · 98 games58% · 226 games
Nyx AssassinChuvash
Nyx Assassin
Lion
LionArrOw
46% · 412 games48% · 165 games
Ancient ApparitionKataomi
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed6:34
V-Gaming 53%Creepwave 47%
The model gave 53% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Creepwave in 33:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTA2000
48% · 94 games48% · 131 game
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Puck
PuckhAze
52% · 330 games54% · 195 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Axe
Axelaise
44% · 93 games53% · 342 games
MarsATF
Mars
Abaddon
AbaddonMalady
51% · 134 games47% · 161 game
OracleKataomi
Oracle
Lion
LionArrOw
54% · 208 games42% · 30 games
Skywrath MageChuvash
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction missed12:32
V-Gaming 51%Creepwave 49%
The model gave 51% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Creepwave in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTA2000
57% · 188 games54% · 49 games
LifestealerCrystallis
Lifestealer
Invoker
InvokerhAze
49% · 139 games50% · 283 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Axe
Axelaise
48% · 162 games46% · 218 games
MarsATF
Mars
Rubick
RubickArrOw
53% · 146 games50% · 167 games
PhoenixChuvash
Phoenix
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalady
53% · 260 games44% · 178 games
HoodwinkKataomi
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 51%
Series resultCreepwave 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3