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ESL One Fall 2021. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
V-Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 16 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 16 games
69%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 16 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 11 games
55%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 8 games
75%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
88%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 7 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
sayuw · 7 games
57%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 19 games
68%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 12 games
58%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 12 games
67%
Viper
Viperoften banned
hAze · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 11 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 11 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
laise · 9 games
78%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
437 picks · 177 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
326 picks · 125 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
319 picks · 624 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
311 picks · 688 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
307 picks · 475 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
295 picks · 526 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
270 picks · 342 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
263 picks · 359 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 68%
Hero pool strength51% Team Empire
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:9
Team Empire 50%V-Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunadyrachyo
48% · 126 games40% · 142 games
AxeTA2000
Axe
Timbersaw
TimbersawShachlo
48% · 121 game53% · 161 game
PuckhAze
Puck
Invoker
Invokerkiyotaka
52% · 114 games56% · 52 games
Brewmasterlaise
Brewmaster
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorVANSKOR
59% · 68 games54% · 82 games
Shadow DemonArrOw
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
46% · 151 game50% · 143 games
AbaddonMalady
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct9:22
Team Empire 48%V-Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 35:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunadyrachyo
51% · 148 games52% · 132 games
InvokerhAze
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void Spiritkiyotaka
39% · 148 games43% · 152 games
AxeTA2000
Axe
Tidehunter
TidehunterShachlo
52% · 132 games52% · 162 games
Timbersawlaise
Timbersaw
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
50% · 187 games60% · 61 game
Treant ProtectorMalady
Treant Protector
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionVANSKOR
54% · 164 games48% · 272 games
LionArrOw
Lion
Game 3prediction missed24:17
Team Empire 48%V-Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Team Empire in 56:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinkiyotaka
53% · 94 games54% · 119 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Ursa
Ursadyrachyo
49% · 97 games55% · 132 games
Timbersawlaise
Timbersaw
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
49% · 75 games49% · 126 games
Death ProphethAze
Death Prophet
Brewmaster
BrewmasterShachlo
48% · 51 game51% · 37 games
Treant ProtectorMalady
Treant Protector
Hoodwink
HoodwinkVANSKOR
46% · 164 games47% · 67 games
Dark WillowArrOw
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 54%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3