OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Invictus Gamingwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 22 games
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 21 game
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
Treant Protector
LaNm · 15 games
Axesignature
Xxs · 14 games
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
439 picks · 181 bans
Hoodwink
323 picks · 125 bans
Nyx Assassin
317 picks · 628 bans
Puck
315 picks · 693 bans
Ancient Apparition
308 picks · 477 bans
Mars
300 picks · 526 bans
Dragon Knight
268 picks · 338 bans
Lina
264 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Aster
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total57% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:15
Team Aster 57%Invictus Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 22:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 57%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1