ESL One Fall 2021. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Creepwavewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 17 games
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 14 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 12 games
Lion
OmaR · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
Creepwave
Marsoften banned
ATF · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Malr1ne · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
Malr1ne · 10 games
Banesignature
Fishman · 7 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 7 games
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 7 games
Enigmasignature
MiLAN · 6 games
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
437 picks · 181 bans
Hoodwink
320 picks · 125 bans
Nyx Assassin
315 picks · 627 bans
Puck
313 picks · 692 bans
Ancient Apparition
308 picks · 476 bans
Mars
299 picks · 524 bans
Dragon Knight
267 picks · 338 bans
Lina
264 picks · 358 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 54%
Hero pool strength58% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 6
Model total64% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:28
Spider Pigzs 42%Creepwave 58%
The model gave 58% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 29:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckNo!ob
Templar Assassinbzm
Juggernautlil pleb
AxeATF
Dragon KnightFunn1k
Drow RangerCrystallis
Nyx AssassinOmaR
HoodwinkChuvash
GrimstrokeLeBronDota
DisruptorKataomi
Game 2prediction correct16:43
Spider Pigzs 43%Creepwave 57%
The model gave 57% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 38:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterlil pleb
Puckbzm
PangolierNo!ob
Drow RangerCrystallis
PudgeFunn1k
Faceless VoidATF
LionOmaR
HoodwinkChuvash
Treant ProtectorLeBronDota
AbaddonKataomi
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 64%
Series resultCreepwave 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2