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ESL One Fall 2021. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniqueloss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spider Pigzswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Unique

No games played over 6 months.

Spider Pigzs

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 15 games
40%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lightless · 14 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 14 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 11 games
18%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 11 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
435 picks · 180 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
318 picks · 124 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
315 picks · 628 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
311 picks · 693 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
309 picks · 476 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
300 picks · 522 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 337 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
265 picks · 359 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Team Unique
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:22
Team Unique 63%Spider Pigzs 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 41:16.
Game 2prediction missed33:26
Team Unique 63%Spider Pigzs 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 39:59.
Game 3prediction missed38:29
Team Unique 63%Spider Pigzs 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 56:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 63%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3