ESL One Fall 2021. Закрытая квалификация · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ICit's coming romeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Creepwave
Marsoften banned
ATF · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
Malr1ne · 10 games
Banesignature
Fishman · 7 games
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 7 games
Enigmasignature
MiLAN · 6 games
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 6 games
Phoenixsignature
MiLAN · 6 games
it's coming rome
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
435 picks · 180 bans
Hoodwink
318 picks · 124 bans
Nyx Assassin
315 picks · 628 bans
Puck
311 picks · 693 bans
Ancient Apparition
309 picks · 476 bans
Mars
300 picks · 522 bans
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 337 bans
Lina
265 picks · 359 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:16
Creepwave 51%it's coming rome 49%
The model gave 51% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 42:03.
Game 2prediction missed33:40
Creepwave 51%it's coming rome 49%
The model gave 51% on Creepwave — the game was taken by it's coming rome in 1:05:27.
Game 3prediction correct21:29
Creepwave 51%it's coming rome 49%
The model gave 51% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 1:10:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 51%
Series resultCreepwave 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3