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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Khanloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Winstrike Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Khan

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 2 games
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
goddam · 2 games
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
pJonn · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 1 game
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
antoha · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 1 game
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
layme · 1 game
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
goddam · 1 game
100%

Winstrike Team

Phoenix
Phoenix
yamich · 20 games
45%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 14 games
43%
Lion
Lion
yamich · 13 games
31%
Mars
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 13 games
46%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
dyrachyo · 13 games
46%
Puck
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
46%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
46%
Lina
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
433 picks · 180 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
314 picks · 123 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
314 picks · 625 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
311 picks · 692 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
310 picks · 474 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
297 picks · 524 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 334 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
265 picks · 358 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 41%
Hero pool strength64% Khan
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:13
Khan 50%Winstrike Team 50%
The model gave 50% on Khan — the game was taken by Khan in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunalayme
58% · 156 games46% · 133 games
Wraith KingEgor
Wraith King
Puck
PuckDodren
48% · 478 games46% · 207 games
Void Spiritmellojul
Void Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerpJonn
37% · 21 game47% · 101 game
Timbersawchshrct
Timbersaw
Dark Willow
Dark Willowgoddam
53% · 129 games53% · 271 game
Lionyamich
Lion
Chen
Chenantoha
55% · 15 games49% · 87 games
Winter WyvernPanto
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed11:33
Khan 53%Winstrike Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Khan — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 37:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerDodren
57% · 135 games49% · 35 games
WeaverEgor
Weaver
Lifestealer
Lifestealerlayme
53% · 61 game43% · 209 games
Marschshrct
Mars
Batrider
BatriderpJonn
51% · 98 games47% · 100 games
Ember Spiritmellojul
Ember Spirit
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassingoddam
53% · 181 game47% · 120 games
Linayamich
Lina
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernantoha
55% · 121 game47% · 132 games
HoodwinkPanto
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct10:27
Khan 49%Winstrike Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 32:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinglayme
46% · 96 games50% · 101 game
MedusaEgor
Medusa
Tiny
TinyDodren
52% · 163 games50% · 85 games
Winter Wyvernmellojul
Winter Wyvern
Tidehunter
TidehunterpJonn
47% · 158 games55% · 197 games
Marschshrct
Mars
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkgoddam
43% · 177 games55% · 60 games
Shadow Demonyamich
Shadow Demon
Chen
Chenantoha
62% · 17 games51% · 168 games
Nyx AssassinPanto
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 52%
Series resultWinstrike Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3