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OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aster.Ariesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 23 games
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 23 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 20 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 20 games
80%
Spectre
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 19 games
79%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 18 games
56%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 18 games
50%

Aster.Aries

Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 15 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 12 games
42%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 9 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 9 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Fantasy · 8 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Fantasy · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
432 picks · 180 bans
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
315 picks · 622 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
314 picks · 123 bans
48%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
311 picks · 474 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
311 picks · 695 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
296 picks · 526 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
267 picks · 333 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
264 picks · 358 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 47%
Hero pool strength61% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:6
Vici Gaming 64%Aster.Aries 36%
The model gave 64% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 25:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusapoyoyo
57% · 88 games50% · 81 game
Timbersaw生死
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritOri
51% · 66 games45% · 40 games
Faceless VoidUlu
Faceless Void
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightELeVeN
47% · 96 games51% · 60 games
Invokerphoenix
Invoker
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagePyw
50% · 10 games46% · 82 games
AbaddonFantasy
Abaddon
Silencer
SilencerDy
57% · 3 games
Game 2prediction missed12:34
Vici Gaming 68%Aster.Aries 32%
The model gave 68% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingpoyoyo
51% · 151 game49% · 134 games
AxeUlu
Axe
Puck
PuckOri
49% · 238 games44% · 189 games
Linaphoenix
Lina
Broodmother
BroodmotherELeVeN
55% · 54 games47% · 370 games
Mars生死
Mars
Lion
LionPyw
48% · 224 games53% · 152 games
Winter WyvernFantasy
Winter Wyvern
Phoenix
PhoenixDy
58% · 178 games
Game 3prediction correct28:21
Vici Gaming 64%Aster.Aries 36%
The model gave 64% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 28:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magepoyoyo
54% · 9 games55% · 75 games
Doom生死
Doom
Lina
LinaOri
46% · 73 games54% · 73 games
SpectreUlu
Spectre
Mars
MarsELeVeN
46% · 100 games55% · 50 games
Broodmotherphoenix
Broodmother
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDy
48% · 70 games60% · 102 games
Winter WyvernFantasy
Winter Wyvern
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPyw
30% · 48 games
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 76%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3