Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Phoenix
yamich · 20 games
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 13 games
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
Lion
yamich · 12 games
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 12 games
Medusaoften banned
dyrachyo · 12 games
Spider Pigzs
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 14 games
Lunaoften banned
lightless · 14 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 13 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 13 games
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Lion
OmaR · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
433 picks · 180 bans
Nyx Assassin
315 picks · 624 bans
Hoodwink
313 picks · 122 bans
Ancient Apparition
311 picks · 476 bans
Puck
311 picks · 696 bans
Mars
295 picks · 525 bans
Dragon Knight
267 picks · 332 bans
Lina
264 picks · 358 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Spider Pigzs
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total59% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:13
Winstrike Team 45%Spider Pigzs 55%
The model gave 55% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 29:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaEgor
Terrorbladelightless
Sand Kingmellojul
PuckNo!ob
Marschshrct
BeastmasterFunn1k
Lionyamich
AbaddonLeBronDota
Shadow DemonPanto
Dark WillowOmaR
Game 2prediction missed30:22
Winstrike Team 46%Spider Pigzs 54%
The model gave 54% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 38:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeEgor
Svenlightless
Batridermellojul
SnapfireNo!ob
Death Prophetchshrct
TimbersawFunn1k
AbaddonPanto
HoodwinkOmaR
Nyx Assassinyamich
EnchantressLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 59%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2